作者:丁途 2014-01-24 18:11:03
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In Part I of this series, I provided an economic philosophy for the prediction of financial crises or bubbles where I point out that it is incredibly problematic to try and predict them. We can see risks but predicting a financial crisis is something very different. There is an old joke that says God invented economi......

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作者:丁途 2014-01-24 18:10:18
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According to JP Morgan report on housing in China from late November, “we think homes are still broadly affordable to the general public and policy risk should be contained in 2014.” Wonder if they interviewed anyone in China or looked at any measure of home prices for this piece of crack research? Credit Suisse......

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作者:丁途 2014-01-22 18:06:10
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Best thing I have read on the explosion of Chinese credit and wealth management products:  “Looking purely at the decline in the year-on-year rate of credit expansion is kind of like arguing that if I chase my shot of vodka with a pint of beer, I’m actually exercising moderation because the alcohol p......

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作者:丁途 2014-01-22 17:58:38
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The piece by Jesse Colombo asking whether Singapore is headed to an Icelandic style meltdown received a lot of attention but not a lot of analysis.  I think it is important to examine not only the factual basis for the arguments put forth but also the bigger picture philosophical framework for predicting financi......

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作者:丁途 2014-01-17 18:59:01
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A New Year and another round of end of month Chinese liquidity concerns. Probably the most concerning aspect of the near monthly or at least quarterly money market and bond rate spikes is the regularity with which they are occurring. These are not one off events but indicators of enormous underlying problems in the C......

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作者:丁途 2013-12-12 19:28:36
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China is facing a mounting debt problem as short term debt matures with 2014 seeing $427 billion of maturing bonds or 19% more than 2013. This has caused the 10 Year AAA rated bond of non-financial companies in China to increase to 6.23% and increasing. To put this number in comparison, Greece is only paying 8.8%. In......

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作者:丁途 2013-12-12 19:28:04
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Apologists for the still state run economy of China like to argue that without the large investment and the guiding hand of favored state owned enterprises, Chinese business would not be competitive. This logic is used to defend the ongoing channeling of credit to favored firms and the rapid expansion of debt levels ......

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作者:丁途 2013-12-12 19:23:24
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在中国,支持国营经济的辩护者会认为,没有大规模投资和国有企业的引导,中国商业将失去竞争力。这一逻辑被用来为某些现象辩护:比如为政府支持的企业开启融资渠道;地方政府融资平台的债务激增。 然而,在消费者的偏好选择中,国企显然不是赢家。最近一项研究指出,私企品牌成长的速度比国企快了三倍。在国企实现9%品牌回报的同时,私企正在创新、提高效率......

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作者:丁途 2013-12-09 17:53:27
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多年来,中国对消费增长速度的缓慢表示了公开的忧虑,然而投资却以近两倍的速度持续增长。如今,投资占中国GDP的比重为48 %,私人消费只占相对较小的36 % 。这种模式几乎不可能在短期内改变,因为固定资产投资每年激增20%,而不同的消费测量指标只增加了6%到13%。不管公共宣传怎么说,这并不是经济再平衡的过程。 姑且不论政府此时此刻是否有意再平衡,让我......

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作者:丁途 2013-12-04 18:33:38
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For years, China has publicly professed concern over its slow growth rate of consumption and for years, the investment has continued to grow nearly twice as fast.  Today investment comprises 48% of Chinese GDP with household consumption a relatively miniscule 36%.  Nor does this pattern appear likely to chang......

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  Christopher Balding,北京大学汇丰商学院副教授,关注中国经济和金融市场。学术著作曾发表在《国际经济学评论》等顶级学术期刊,常被BBC、《华尔街日报》、《金融时报》等媒体引用,新书《主权财富基金:货币和权力的新十字路口》。 Christopher Balding is an associate professor finance and economics at the HSBC Business School of Peking University Graduate School. An expert in sovereign wealth funds, he recently released a book entitled Sovereign Wealth Funds: The New Intersection of Money and Power published by Oxford University Press. His work has been cited by a variety of global media outlets including the BBC, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, and Financial Times and he speaks regularly on the Chinese economy and financial markets. His scholarly work has been published in such leading journals as the Review of International Economics, the International Finance Review, and the Journal of Public Economic Theory on such diverse topics as CDS pricing, the WTO, and the economics of adoption and abortion.
财经网网友: 私人消费只占相对较小的36 % 这个值有问题 将自有房屋 房租市场化入账, 医疗教育市场化 很容易增长20% 但是没人愿意的
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