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Syriza and the French indemnity of 1871-73
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2015年02月16日 23:55:37

European nationalists have successfully convinced us, against all logic, that the European crisis is a conflict among nations, and not among economic sectors. Today’s Financial Times has an articlediscussing the travails of Greece’s new Finance Minister, Yanis Varoufakis as he takes on Germany: In a small but telling sign of the frosty relations between Berlin and the new Greek government, the German finance ministry last week criticised Mr Varoufakis for failing to follow through with a customary courtesy call following his appointment. Mr Schäu… 

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Can monetary policy turn Argentina into Japan?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2015年02月16日 23:55:07

Monetary policy is as much about politics as it is economics. It affects the ways in which wealth is created, allocated, and retained and it determines the balance of power between providers of capital and users of capital. In January one of my readers kindly passed on to me a link to an interesting reportpublished two years ago by Bain and Company called “A World awash in Money: Capital trends through 2020”. According to the authors: Our analysis leads us to conclude that for the balance of the decade, markets will generally continue to grapple with an environm… 

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Inverted balance sheets and doubling the financial bet
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2015年02月16日 23:54:50

On Tuesday the National Bureau of Statistics released China’s 2014 GDP growth numbers and reported growth consistent with what the government has been widely promoting as the “new normal”. According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 63,646.3 billion yuan in 2014, an increase of 7.4 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of the first quarter was 7.4 percent, the second quarter 7.5 percent, the third quarter 7.3 percent, and the fourth quarter 7.3 percent. As nearly every news article… 

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Interview on Chinese CPI and PPI data for December
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2015年02月16日 23:54:25

The National Bureau of Statistics released today CPI and PPI data for December 2014. People’s Dailysummarizes the CPI data, which came in pretty close to market expectations: China’s consumer prices grew 2 percent in 2014 from one year earlier, well below the government’s 3.5 percent target set for the year, official data showed on Friday. The increase was also below the 2.6-percent growth registered in 2013. Growth in the consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, rebounded to 1.5 percent in December from November’s 1.4-percent rise, its sl… 

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My reading of the FT on China’s “turning away from the dollar”
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2015年02月16日 23:54:08

The Financial Times ran a very interesting article last week called “China: Turning away from the dollar”. It got a lot of attention, at least among China analysts, and I was asked several times by friends and clients for my response. The authors, James Kynge and Josh Noble, begin their article by noting that we are going through significant changes in the institutional structure of global finance: An “age of Chinese capital”, as Deutsche Bank calls it, is dawning, raising the prospect of fundamental changes in the way the world of finance is wi… 

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Should Beijing raise subway fares?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2015年02月16日 23:53:16

By Michael Pettis · October 30, 2014  Reuters had an article yesterday about the rumors, and I too have heard about this over the past couple of months, that Beijing will raise subway prices. This topic is pretty specific and specialized compared to what I normally write about on this blog, but because a friend asked me to discuss the topic with him for an article he was writing, I did do some thinking which although hurried I thought might be of interest to some readers, mainly because thinking about the “correct” subway fare i… 

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中国经济增速放缓对世界有什么影响?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2015年01月04日 14:12:53

佩蒂斯:中国非世界经济引擎 十年后增速不超3%-4%  【Christina/编译】近日,卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员迈克尔·佩蒂斯撰文指出,中国并非世界经济引擎,中国增速放缓对全球经济的影响被高估,中国增速放缓将对只一些地区产生影响,影响可能有好有坏,具体是好是坏取决于中国如何调节国内储蓄和投资,如果储蓄下降的速度快于投资,将给世界带来净需求的增长,如果投资率下降超过储蓄率,目前的经常账户余额将增长,那世界经济将恶化。他还认为,分析师对中国经济最低增速过于乐观,最低增速可能低于6。 佩蒂斯在文中称,多数分析师以为中国CPI指数低于预期是跟欧美一样,因为央行的宽松货币政策和信贷政策,但实际上中美市场价格对… 

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The four stages of Chinese growth
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年07月01日 19:15:55

From the early 1980s until now China has grown at a pace not matched since the four decades Argentina enjoyed before the First World War. In spite of some fairly goofy attempts a few years ago, however, to characterize China during this period as having followed a set of policies called the “Beijing Consensus”, these decades did not involve a unified set of policies, or a set of related polices, that Beijing implemented consistently. It is far more useful, I would argue, to think about the past 3-4 decades as consisting of four very different periods, the last of which … 

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Some things to consider if Spain leaves the euro
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年05月27日 19:15:32

It might seem almost churlish to wonder what would happen if Spain were to leave the euro. The official European position is that the battle of the euro has been pretty much won, and anyone who argues otherwise will be accused of being a euro hater, an Anglo-Saxon or, even worse, a writer for theFinancial Times. But there is more than one “battle” around the euro. While the battle of liquidity seems to have been won, the solvency and the unemployment battles (the latter of which is really a battle of unbalanced demand) have not even been addressed. Every sovereign de… 

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Why a savings glut does not increase savings
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年05月23日 16:55:30

Debate about the global savings glut hypothesis is mired in confusion, a fundamental one of which is the seemingly obvious but false claim that a global savings glut must lead to higher global savings.Here, for example, is a recent piece by one of my favorite economists, Barry Eichengreen: There is only one problem: the data show little evidence of a savings glut. Since 1980, global savings have fluctuated between 22% and 24% of world GDP, with little tendency to trend up or down. As surprising as it might sound, global savings gluts do not result in highe… 

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Do we understand the math behind the PPP calculations?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年05月07日 18:42:54

中国离世界第一很远 原因在坏账 最近世界银行一份报告宣称中国有望在今年超越美国成为全球最大经济体,引起广泛争议。世行报告通过购买力平价(PPP)对中美GDP进行调整,以纠正汇率在反映产品和服务实际成本上的缺陷。按汇率计算,2011年中国GDP规模为美国的47%;但是经过PPP调整之后,相当于美国的87%。世行进一步推算中国经济规模将在今年超越美国。对于这一预测,中国国家统计局断然表示否定,认为世行的分析高估了中国的GDP规模。 世行这一结论也引发不少经济学家的批评,包括北京大学光华管理学院客座教授、卡耐基基金会高级副研究员迈克尔-佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)等。佩蒂斯批评世行的分析结论,认为中国距离世界第一大经济… 

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Economic Consequences of Income Inequality
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年04月15日 10:02:50

A lot of things have happened in China since my last entry – in the FX markets, in the banking system, in the announcements of default, and in the continuing lowering of growth expectations – but for all the turmoil, as I see it nothing has happened that was unexpected and that has not been discussed many times on this blog. For that reason I decided to post a rather long essay (sorry) on income inequality and on how I think we can best think about the impact of income inequality on the global economy. This is a loaded topic, and I suspect I am going to get a lot of … 

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Will emerging markets come back?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年04月15日 10:00:30

I don’t often make reference to these kinds of things in my blog, but Saturday’s terrorist attack in the Kunming train station – in which 29 innocent people were hacked to death (the toll was especially high among the elderly who were unable to run away quickly enough from the killers) – fills me with dread and dismay. This kind of brutal massacre is not about sending a message to Beijing or to the world but is rather aimed at getting the authorities to overreact so as to create hatred within the country. I truly hope it does not succeed. There is a great deal of a… 

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What do Bank Share Prices Tell Us About Growth?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年02月17日 17:55:56

Tom Holland had an interesting piece in the South China Morning Post three weeks ago in which he discusses the low valuations of Chinese banks. About a decade ago, if I remember correctly, Chinese banks were trading between three and four times book. Those valuations have dropped considerably since then: On Monday, the weighted average price-book value ratio for the 10 Chinese banks listed in Hong Kong fell to just 0.98. In other words, as an investor you would have been able to buy shares in Chinese banks for less than the cash you would have received – in theory – … 

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The Impact of Reform on Growth
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年02月07日 17:11:47

I got a lot of feedback from my January 5 blog entry because of my argument that the implementation of the reforms proposed in the Third Plenum all but guarantees that growth rates in China will slow down. For that reason I thought it might make sense for me to explain a little more carefully why I think this must happen, and why I think that we can almost judge how successfully the reforms are implemented by how quickly growth slows. The first point to recognize is that when a country’s growth has been driven by wasteful investment, GDP growth will exceed real econom… 

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Will the Reforms Speed Growth in China?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2014年01月07日 18:27:55

【中文导读】 ——在这个十年剩下的几年间,要让中国GDP增长速度仍然维持或接近目前的水平几乎是不可能的。也许当增长水平下降时,那些声称目前增速将保持下去的人或把原因归咎于北京当局没能好好执行改革任务。这样或许能帮他们扳回颜面,但我认为,这种看法错得相当离谱。相反,要是中国GDP在2014和2015年继续以每年高于7%的速度增长,那恰恰说明,北京当局没能实施他们承诺的改革。 ——关于三中全会,我以前说过很多次,历史先例告诉我们,中国政府面临的最大的挑战不是选择最适合中国的一套改革方案,而是如何执行这些改革。开药方容易,但执行下去面临的政治阻力可能会非常强大。至于原因,我们需要弄明白"经济精英的利益"和"经济发展的需要… 

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Monetary Policy Under Financial Repression
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2013年12月20日 18:23:34

Following Paul Krugman’s lead I guess I can refer to this post as being “wonkish”. Much of it is based on my recent book Avoiding the Fall (Carnegie Endowment, September 2013). In order to understand much of what is happening in China I believe it is crucially important to understand how financial systems operate under condition of financial repression. Because most of what we know about economics is derived from economists whose operating environment is the classical “anglo-saxon” economies (I stress “classical” because for much of the 19th Century, operating u… 

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The Politics of Adjustment
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2013年12月09日 19:13:25

The past two years have seen a surprising amount of turmoil at the highest levels of the Chinese political establishment. We have seen political alliances re-shuffled, powerful business and political leaders arrested, factional disputes magnified, and an explosion of rumors of more to come. After twenty years of what seemed, on the surface at least, remarkable cohesion within China’s political elite, events of the past two years have come as a great surprise to many. And yet the historical precedents suggest that none of this should have surprised us. After nearly thi… 

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When are Markets “Rational”?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2013年11月26日 18:24:51

Last month’s award of the Nobel Price in economics set off a great deal of chortling because one of the three recipients, Eugene Fama, received the award for saying that markets are efficient at capital allocation and another, Robert Schiller, received the award for saying they are not. Typical is this response by John Kay: The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences continues to astonish the public when awarding the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. In 2011 it celebrated the success of recent research in promoting macroeconomic stability. This year it pays tribute to the … 

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Will Debt Derail Abenomics?
作者:迈克尔•佩蒂斯 2013年11月11日 18:24:07

It seems to me that one of the automatic, if not always intended, consequences of Abenomics is to force up Japan’s current account surplus, and in fact to force it up substantially. This will have to do at least in part with deciding how to manage the country’s enormous government debt burden, which easily exceeds 200% of the country’s GDP. If I am right, this should create two concerns. First, in a world struggling with insufficient demand and excess capacity, and in which the growth strategies of too many countries implicitly involve a significant increase in expo… 

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国六条还缺少点什么?
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暂停虚拟信用卡及二维码支付后何时恢复?
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房企业绩研评之八:资金链趋紧,或再现“跑路潮”
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没有土改护航 土地信托中看不中用
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中国“涨”与“胀”
明月清风001:   代開北京國稅發票,13622796348 林經理 QQ:2320119100,本財稅公司經北京財政與工商局批准合法辦理各種發票代開業務,100%真票,點數優惠,無需定金,驗後付款,歡迎來電洽談! 合作流程 一、貴公司提供將要辦理發票的詳細資料:公司 頭、日期、項目、品名、單位、金額、數量;還要貴方提供收件人的地址、姓名、聯系電話; 二、本公司收到資料後,將以最快的業務辦理,在三個工作日(正常情況下)安排業務人員或快遞方式送到您手上; 三、貴公司收到發票後在未結帳之前上網查詢或到稅務局驗證,驗證有效後付款(收到款後我方第壹時間告知貴方)。 特殊情況:若貴公司因自身人為有意逾期不付款,我公司將終止該發票的壹切使用權,因此造成貴公司的損失我方壹概不負責任,並將追究其相關責任。 鄭重承諾:代開北京國稅發票的票據均可以上網查詢或到稅務局驗證! 代開北京國稅發票財稅有限公司手機:13622796348 聯系:林經理 Q Q:2320119100
中日经济战怎么打?
明月清风001:   代開北京國稅發票,13622796348 林經理 QQ:2320119100,本財稅公司經北京財政與工商局批准合法辦理各種發票代開業務,100%真票,點數優惠,無需定金,驗後付款,歡迎來電洽談! 合作流程 一、貴公司提供將要辦理發票的詳細資料:公司 頭、日期、項目、品名、單位、金額、數量;還要貴方提供收件人的地址、姓名、聯系電話; 二、本公司收到資料後,將以最快的業務辦理,在三個工作日(正常情況下)安排業務人員或快遞方式送到您手上; 三、貴公司收到發票後在未結帳之前上網查詢或到稅務局驗證,驗證有效後付款(收到款後我方第壹時間告知貴方)。 特殊情況:若貴公司因自身人為有意逾期不付款,我公司將終止該發票的壹切使用權,因此造成貴公司的損失我方壹概不負責任,並將追究其相關責任。 鄭重承諾:代開北京國稅發票的票據均可以上網查詢或到稅務局驗證! 代開北京國稅發票財稅有限公司手機:13622796348 聯系:林經理 Q Q:2320119100
李佐军:中国经济继续震荡下行
明月清风001:   代開北京國稅發票,13622796348 林經理 QQ:2320119100,本財稅公司經北京財政與工商局批准合法辦理各種發票代開業務,100%真票,點數優惠,無需定金,驗後付款,歡迎來電洽談! 合作流程 一、貴公司提供將要辦理發票的詳細資料:公司 頭、日期、項目、品名、單位、金額、數量;還要貴方提供收件人的地址、姓名、聯系電話; 二、本公司收到資料後,將以最快的業務辦理,在三個工作日(正常情況下)安排業務人員或快遞方式送到您手上; 三、貴公司收到發票後在未結帳之前上網查詢或到稅務局驗證,驗證有效後付款(收到款後我方第壹時間告知貴方)。 特殊情況:若貴公司因自身人為有意逾期不付款,我公司將終止該發票的壹切使用權,因此造成貴公司的損失我方壹概不負責任,並將追究其相關責任。 鄭重承諾:代開北京國稅發票的票據均可以上網查詢或到稅務局驗證! 代開北京國稅發票財稅有限公司手機:13622796348 聯系:林經理 Q Q:2320119100
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